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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still