🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.